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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-06-19T06:42:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-19T06:42Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8720/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption below AR12371. Faint front in C3
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T04:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -44
Dst min. time: 2015-06-22T17:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 Jun 19 2017 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The second CME reported earlier today in the URSIGRAM is a partial halo CME first visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images at 6:42 UT (with a data gap between 6:42 UT and the earlier reported time of appearance 8:25UT). As reported earlier, it is associated with the flaring of the filament channel stretching over the south-eastern quadrant which starts around 5:00 UT.
The angular width of the CME is around 180 degrees, and it is directed predominantly southward. Measured projected speeds are around 500 km/s. With its southward direction and limited speed a possible glancing blow is not expected before June 22, late morning.
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Lead Time: 56.43 hour(s)
Difference: -3.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-06-19T20:25Z

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